It’s been very nearly two years since the last time, and that’s way too long. So: it’s time for another caption hunt!
Leave your caption(s) in the comments. Who knows? There might even be a prize or two involved.
(Update: comments are now enabled. Oopsie.)
Long-time readers (and Jeremy) probably remember HYDEsim, the big-boom ’simulator’ I hacked together using the Google Maps API and some information in my personal reading library.
Well, with North Korea setting off something that might have been a nuclear device, it’s starting to show up in the darndest places. Everyone’s favorite millenial talk show host, Glenn Beck, not only mentioned it on his radio program this past Monday, but also put a link on the main page of his site for a couple of days. Then it got Farked. I suppose it’s only a matter of time now before it gets Slashdotted as well.
With the increased attention, some old criticisms have arisen, as well as some misunderstandings. For example, on Fark, someone said:
I thought it was funny how people are playing with this and think they were “safe” if they weren’t in the circle.
Here’s a mockup I did of the kind of blast damage you could expect from a single 1980’s era Russian ICBM carrying 10 MIRV warheads, each capable of 750KT yield.
Oh my yes. That’s something that the HYDEsim code can theoretically support, since every detonation point is an object and there’s no limit on the number of objects you can have, but I never managed to add this capability. That’s because trying to figure out the UI for placing the MIRV impact points broke my head, and when I considered how to set all that in the URI parameters (for direct linking), a tiny wisp of smoke curled out of my left ear. Still, one of these days I should probably at least add a “MIRV ring impact” option so the young’n’s can get an idea of what had us all scared back in the old days.
The interesting challenge is that a strategic nuclear strike of that variety is going to involve a whole bunch of optimum-altitude air bursts. HYDEsim takes the simpler—and also, in this darkened day and age, more realistic—approach of calculating the effects of a ground burst. The difference is in no sense trivial: a ground burst has a lot of energy, both thermal and radiological, absorbed by the ground (oddly enough!). On the other hand, its highest overpressure distances are actually greater.
This is because shock energy drops with distance, of course. An optimum-altitude air burst would be a mile or two above the ground, so the highest pressures would be directly beneath the explosion, and would be smaller than if the same weapon exploded on the ground. With an air burst there’s less ground and man-made clutter to attenuate the shock waves as they spread out, so the total area taking some degree of damage due to overpressure is actually greater. (There are also very complex interactions between the shock waves in the air and those reflected off the ground, but those are way beyond my ability to simulate in JavaScript.)
Also, direct thermal radiation is spread over a much greater area with an air burst than with a ground burst—again, there’s less stuff in the way. The amount of fallout depends on the “cleanliness” of the warhead, but for an air burst it can actually be expected to be less than a groundburst.
People also claim that radiological energy (X-rays, neutron radiation, gamma radiation, etc.) will be the deadliest factor of all. Actually, it’s just the opposite, unless you’re discussing something like a neutron bomb. The amount of harmful direct-effect radiation that comes directly from the explosion is far, far smaller than the thermal energy. And yes, I know thermal radiation is direct-effect, but there’s a large practical difference between heat and other forms of radiation.
Put another way, if you’re close enough to an exploding nuclear warhead that the amount of radiation emitted by the explosion would ordinarily kill you, the odds are overwhelmingly high that the amount of shock wave and thermal energy arriving at your position will ensure that there won’t be time for you to worry about the radiation effects. Or anything else, really.
Remember: I’m talking there about direct radiation, not the EMP or fallout. That’s a whole separate problem, and one HYDEsim doesn’t address, to the apparent disgust of another Farker:
The site is useless without fallout and thermal damage.
Well, I don’t know about useless, but it’s admittedly not as representative of the totality of nuclear-weapons damage as it might otherwise be. Of course, HYDEsim is not specifically about nuclear detonations, as I showed when I mapped the Hertfordshire oil refinery explosion and djsunkid mapped the Halifax explosion of 1917. But I certainly admit that the vast majority of explosions in the range the tool covers are going to be from nuclear weapons.
The problem with mapping fallout is that it’s kind of weather dependent, just for starters; just a few miles-per-hour difference in wind speed can drastically alter the fallout pattern, and the position of the jet stream plays a role too. Also, the amount of fallout is dependent on the kind of detonation—anyone who was paying attention during the Cold War will remember the difference between “dirty” and “clean” nuclear warheads. (For those of you who came late: to get a “dirty” warhead, you configure a device to reduce the explosive power but generate a lot more fallout.)
Thermal effects are something I should add, but it’s trickier than you might expect. There’s actually an area around the explosion where there are no fires, because the shock effects snuff them out. Beyond that, there’s a ring of fire (cue Johnny Cash). So it’s not nearly as simple as charting overpressure, which is itself not totally simple.
And then there’s there whole “how to combine thermal-effect and overpressure rings in a way that doesn’t become totally confusing” problem. Get ambitious, and then you have the “plus the show fallout plume without making everything a total muddle” follow-on problem. Ah well, life’s empty without a challenge, right?
Okay, so I went through all that and didn’t actually get to my point, which is this: I’ve been rather fascinated to see how the tool gets used. When it was first published, there was a very high percentage of the audience who just went, “Cooool!”. That’s still the case. It’s the same thing that draws eyes to a traffic accident; it’s horrible, but we still want to see.
However, I also got some pushback from conservative types: how dare I publish such a thing, when it could only be useful to terrorists?!?!? Rather than play to the audience and inform them that I simply hate freedom, I mentioned that it was desirable to have people like you and me better understand the threats we face. It’s not like the terrorists can’t figure this stuff out anyway.
Now I’ve seen a bunch of people from the same ideological camp use HYDEsim to mock the North Koreans’ test, which apparently misfired and only achieved a yield of about 0.5KT. Others have taken that figure and plotted it in American cities, giving some scale to the dimension of this particular threat. Still others have done that, but with the yield the North Koreans had attempted to reach (thought to be 4KT), or even with yields up to 50KT. In most cases, these last are shown in conjunction with commentary to the effect of “now do you understand why this is a problem?”.
This is why I do what I do, whether it’s write books or publish articles or speak at conferences or build tools or just post entries here: to help people learn more about their world, and to help them share what they know and think and believe with others. Sometimes that’s worth saying again, if only to remind myself.
Dear Democratic Party:
I have a few suggestions on how you might improve your relationship with centrists who would like to support you. Well, all right, it’s really all about how to improve your relationship with me.
The primary rule is this: stop annoying me.
You might wonder which of your policies, pronouncements, or other points of politicking have triggered this reaction. In all honesty, none of them; from what little attention I’ve paid to political debate in America, you’re batting about even with the Republicans, though I tend to give you a slight edge due to my internal biases. No, what’s raised my ire is the one-two punch of clueless marketing you served me today.
The first one was a fund-raising letter sent to me by Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. It’s nice to know that Mrs. Clinton is interested in involving her constituents in the political process, at least as far as their wallets go. Slight problem: Mrs. Clinton is not my senator. She doesn’t even represent a single person in my state, as I live in Ohio, not New York.
Of course I realize this was a national campaign, not a matter of local politics. That being the case, though, the name on the envelope should have been that of your national party chairman, Dr. Howard Dean. If he’s not popular enough to be attached to such an effort, then you need a new chair.
The follow-up fumble was a telephone call I got early this evening which also exhorted me to donate to the cause. Now, part of the reason I get these calls is that, as a political entity, you’re free to ignore the Do Not Call list. Both parties took shameless advantage of this oh-so-convenient exception last fall, as I observed at the time, but since the election you’d both pretty much shut up, thankfully. The other part of the reason is that I gave a small donation to a chilly, rain-soaked young woman who rang our doorbell one evening. At the time, I did it because I was marginally less opposed to your Presidential candidate than I was to his opponent, and because I can be a sucker for young idealists caught in the rain. What I didn’t reckon, though I should have, was that it would put me on the “contact this guy a lot” list.
Where “a lot” isn’t usually more than twice a month, I admit, but still.
Anyway, your telemarketing temp launched into her spiel, which was nicely written, but I decided to inform her that I wasn’t interested since the last time I’d made a donation, it had gotten me onto a bunch of mailing lists. Her response was that what actually happens is when you go out on the Internet and use search engines, they hang onto that information.
So here’s my last tip, which comes in two parts. It goes like this. If you’re going to give your marketdroids some kind of response for complaints like mine, try to make sure that it’s:
If you haven’t written a response for that kind of complaint, then you should at least instruct your temps that ad-libbing their own bogus responses isn’t kosher. Tell them to try a little sympathy and understanding—and, even better, have them tell prospects that their name won’t be put on every liberal-leaning mailing list in the universe!
Although please only have them tell people that if it’s actually true. Leave the lying to the politicians.
Anyway, that’s it in a nutshell. Remember that I’m only saying all this because I care. Good luck.
Sincerely,
Eric
P.S. to the Republicans: stop looking so smug, because you know damned well you’d be doing the same stuff if I’d given you any money. In fact, last year you sent me two surveys soliciting my opinions as a representative of “a select group of Republicans” in my area. Leaving aside the pathetically transparent lie it represented (that you were only contacting a few select people in every area, as opposed to sending one to everyone you could find), it was at best insultingly biased to anyone who possesses more than an milligram of functioning brain cells.
You’re no better than the Democrats; in many ways, you’re a lot worse, and I occasionally toy with the idea of donating some small amount just to see how awful your subsequent mailings and phone calls would get. You know, do a comparison with what the Democrats are sending me. But honestly? I’d really rather not hear from either of you until you learn to behave like adults.
Over the last two days, some… odd pictures of the President and his new appointees have made the rounds. Here they are:
I could use some cheering up, so if you’d like to help out, write funny captions for one or both pictures. Extra credit for captions that don’t make sex jokes. (Anything really foul will be deleted. You have been warned.)
For those who wish to contribute two captions, I think we’ll be daringly original and refer to the first picture (of Bush and Rice) as #1, and the second (of Bush and Spellings) as #2. Got it? Great. Knock yourselves out.
Okay, so yesterday’s post was a bit of tongue-in-cheekery, but with a very serious undertone. As a matter of fact, today Kat, Carolyn, and I went to a doctor’s appointment, then to vote, and then out to lunch. When we got back, there were two voice mail messages. I laid 3:1 odds that they were both political, and yes, they were both GOP ads. While we were retrieving those messages, another message landed in our voice mail box—this one also from the GOP.
The flood of political calls has been, not to put too fine a point on it, infuriating. I signed up with the Do Not Call list for a reason, geniuses. I’m doubly glad to be on it now that we have Carolyn. I’m not especially concerned that the phone will wake her, bless her heart; once she goes to deep sleep, you could practically send a marching band through her room to play “Columbia, The Gem Of The Ocean” at full volume and she’d continue snoring. (Such cute little snores they are, too.) But some nights, especially when the teething is particularly bad, she never really gets to a deep sleep. The last thing I want is for her to be woken up by a ringing phone and experience more pain because some politician or political activist thinks I really need to hear from him (or her). I don’t. Stop bothering me.
Now, I’ll admit that my vote for President was never in serious doubt. It was easier to justify, though, on the grounds that Kerry and his allies had invaded my family’s privacy to a lesser extent than did his opponents. It’s a classic “lesser of two evils” rationalization, but hey, any port in an electoral storm. It’s also a metaphor for the Bush administration’s stance on social and privacy issues, now that I think about it.
And why was my vote never in serious doubt? I can explain that in ten words (16 words and three letters if you count the names).
| Social | Fiscal | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric A. Meyer | Liberal | Conservative |
| George W. Bush | Conservative | Liberal |
| John F. Kerry | Liberal | Liberal |
That’s it in a nutshell. I’ve had a number problems with the Bush administration’s policies and actions, and most of them stem from the differences in philosophy that table summarizes.
There’s another reason I voted for Kerry, though: the Congress is almost certainly not going to be controlled by the Democrats. Thus, the only things that will get through the legislative process are those with broad support. Most observers feel that should Kerry win, he’ll have to set aside some of his grander (read: more expensive) plans for at least the first two years of his administration. That’s just fine with me. Since a Republican-dominated government apparently can’t show a sense of fiscal restraint, I’d be happy to have it arise as a side effect of an opposite-party government.
Well, not exactly happy, really, but hopefully you know what I mean.
It’ll certainly be interesting to watch how all this plays out. Now, if you haven’t yet, get out there and vote!
Dear President Bush,
How are things going? I hear you’ve been very busy, doing a lot of traveling, that sort of thing. In a way, it’s too bad you don’t fly on commercial airlines, because you would have a whole pile of frequent flyer miles. You could probably earn three or four round-the-world trips. Though now that I think about it, you probably don’t really need that kind help getting around, do you?
I’ve long been an undecided voter, thanks in no small part to the choice of candidates this time around. I’m sure you’re a very honorable man, at least to the extent your office will permit. Nonetheless, about half your policies have been deeply dismaying to me. On the other hand, about half your opponent’s positions are no more appealing to me. On the whole, as I’ve complained from time to time, I’ve had a very difficult time making up my mind how to vote. It’s true that I’m traditionally a liberal type, but that’s mostly in the social arena. That, incidentally, should provide a good indication of which half of your policies have dismayed me.
As a resident of a “battleground” state, or “swing” state, or whatever it is we’re calling them these days, I’ve been getting a lot of phone calls these days. I imagine you know a thing or two about that; after all, your mother and your wife both called. So did Arnold Schwarzenegger. Also Gwyneth Paltrow and Sarah Jessica Parker, although they of course weren’t calling on your behalf. In addition, I’ve heard from a number of dire-voiced men warning me about the terrible dangers inherent in electing you, or your opponent, to the White House. Over the past month, I’d estimate that I’ve received at least fifty calls from campaigns, political parties, 527 groups, and so forth. In one recent night, three such calls came in the space of twenty minutes. I’d most certainly have gotten more calls, but I was out of town for a week.
Anyway, I thought I’d let you know that from what I can tell, the organization of your campaign, and of those efforts aligned with you, has been more effective at reaching voters in my area. At a rough estimate, calls from your campaign, the Republican Party, and various 527 groups close to your side of the ideological spectrum have outnumbered those from the other side of the spectrum by about a third.
Accordingly, I’ll be casting my vote for John Kerry.
The circus came to town yesterday, specifically to the Case campus. It had in fact been arriving for the past few days, but things really started to kick into high gear yesterday. So Jim, who has a parking pass to the most conveniently-located garage on campus, and I decided to make a mid-day pilgramage to campus and enjoy the sights. And hey, why not share them with you? Maybe you love circuses as well.
Even before noon, the Lyndon LaRouche folks had set up right next to one of the access points to the “public discussion area” (otherwise known as the “free speech zone”). From what I could tell the table was manned by college students. I had no idea there were college students that wacked out. So far as we could tell, they were obeying all of the posted rules, but the day was still early yet.
A little bit later on, we came across the Freedom Frankenstein, lumbering across the landscape like a big, scary, primary-color boogeyman. Or something. Okay, it was one of the decorations for the MTV concert area. At least we think that’s what area it was in. The people setting it up didn’t actually know, and crowd members seemed to be confused about which event was being held where. Actually, the crowd members seemed to be confused about a great many things.
The football field just outside Emerson Gymnasium, the site of the debate, was covered with transmission trucks. As we approached the field perimeter, we got the once-over from some grim-looking gentlemen in suits and shades. A more normal-looking guy near the barrier line looked up at us and said, “You can’t take pictures here. The Secret Service guys won’t allow it.” So we retreated a bit, gained higher ground, and took the picture anyway. Which drew the attention of a couple of Secret Service guys; as they started walking in our general direction, we decided it was time to check out the other side of campus. It’s great to know that the media uplink trucks of the world are so well protected, you know?
The two books pictured were just sitting next to a crosswalk on Euclid Avenue. There was nobody within thirty feet of them besides us. We couldn’t quite work out if they were freebies (despite having cover prices) or if picking one up would activate some sort of hidden box trap. We decided to leave them alone and go check out the Hardball rehearsal at the MSNBC stage. Demonstrators for various causes and candidates had already staked out space, despite it being four or five hours before the show itself would air. Chris Matthews came down and talked with the people along the fence line, and some volunteers practied handing out Krispy Kreme donuts. Apparently that’s something they do during the show. Or else did. I didn’t watch it.
I’ll say this much: Chris Matthews looks a lot less healthy in person than he does on television. I didn’t get a chance to ask him if Zell was still demanding that they duel.
In all, it was a fun time. All it needed was some monkeys and maybe a juggling act, and the day would have been perfect.
Back on September 10th, liberal Tom Toles published a political cartoon equating the hurricanes pummeling Florida this season with a message from God regarding the 2000 election. Now, thanks to Photo Matt, I’ve now laid eyes on a map that kind of makes the joke seem more real. Assuming the storm tracks and election results charted there are accurate, and from what little information I’ve been able to gather they appear to be, that’s kind of… spooky. Hey, if God does indeed have a presence in this world, you’d think he would have dominion over the course of hurricanes; given that, you have to wonder if maybe he’s trying to tell us something.
Especially since the prediction about Ivan turning west is actually coming true. Having dissipated over the continental United States, the low-pressure remnants of Ivan have managed to get all the way back to the Gulf of Mexico and are re-forming into a tropical storm. Ivan is currently projected to bring flooding to Louisiana and Texas. Seriously.
Hmmm…..
(All right, all right, if we must be serious about this, here’s the Snopes rebuttal. But please note the categories for this post.)
